After compiling numerous word documents worth of mostly useless information gleaned from a variety of news sources and phone calls with multiple people still in Cairo, I've decided to share the bits here that I don't feel are being done justice in other news sources.
"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security."
- Benjamin Franklin
In the words of a sharp-tongued Egyptian who is nonetheless close to my heart, "Screw Benjamin Franklin". Such is the opinion of many Egyptians, who, though they wouldn't describe themselves as 'pro-Mubarak', desire to return their country to a state of relative security that they only believe to be possible if Mubarak is allowed to serve out the remainder of his term.
Contrary to what is being portrayed on most TV stations, things are winding down in Tahrir square. Army officials were shown today attempting to remove barricades so as to allow automobile traffic to once more pass through the square by tomorrow, the beginning of the work week. With only a fraction of the original crowd of protesters still left, there is no reason to believe that most people won’t be able to return to their pre-January 25th routines.
Though lumped together by the news station's blanket term of ‘protesters’, those left in the square are only a shadow of previous days' diverse crowds and consist mainly of hardcore members of the April 6th movement and a large number of the Ikhwan al Muslimoon (Muslim Brotherhood); or, in the words of the previously mentioned Egyptian, those with nothing better to do. It is in fact not entirely unreasonable to view the situation in this way. Not surprisingly, the April 6th Youth Movement is peopled mainly by, well, youth. Considering that one of their main complaints is the youth unemployment rate, well, they really don’t have anything better to do, do they? And the Ikhwan, who are in fact hard pressed for very significant numbers of supporters, thanks in large part to Mubarak (whose greatest fear is that the Brotherhood will take over should he leave) obviously have a vested interest in seeing their greatest enemy ousted. It is interesting to note as well that one person present at the protests reported that "When groups of Muslim Brotherhood would start chanting pro-Islamist slogans, everyone around them told them to stop because the revolution belongs to all people. People carried signs showing solidarity between Muslims and Christians."
As for the rest of the conspicuously absent Cairo population, word on the car-filled street has it they simply want this to be over with. Having set aside multiple hours to cover the situation in Egypt, most news stations were not too eager to report that most people were in fact happy with Mubarak’s February 1st speech which promised three overwhelmingly satisfying things:
- He will not run for reelection come September and, although he will finish out his term as President, he will transfer the majority of his power to others.
- He will assign the proper authorities to oversee the investigation of corruption charges and the causes of government-induced violence and destruction around the country.
- He will personally oversee the altering of a number of Constitutional amendments, namely those which have allowed him to stay in power for nearly 30 years and those which have led to such rampant corruption in the election process.
Sure, not everyone flooded out of the square immediately after the speech, but did the same number of people return the next day? Certainly not. And in the days following the speech the population of Tahrir square has only decreased.
Stop by a certain gym in Nasser City and you’ll find a group of men of various ages, occupations, and educational backgrounds with one thing in common. Despite having frequented the protests in Tahrir for a few days, after February 1st none of them returned. Ayman, a rather buff, but not particularly educated member of the gym (and so statistically more likely to continue supporting the protests) was pleased with Mubarak’s concessions and has been perfectly content as of late with his new found role of civilian traffic authority. As most men have been doing around their homes in Cairo, Ayman stops all traffic coming through the streets near his apartment to check for papers and ID cards. Those who don’t live in the area are sent away, those with paraphernalia have it confiscated, and in the case of Ayman, those with toc toc’s have their vehicles taken for brief ‘inspection rides’. If this is the worst abuse of civilian authority we can expect, then are we really to be so concerned about the future of Egypt? Of course, in the case of a driver caught transporting significant amounts of hashish through the area, perhaps the abuses aren’t so harmless. By the time the drugs were turned over to the proper military authorities, only a quarter of the original amount remained.
Civilian checkpoints
Tools of the civilian defense squads
While American news networks and the BBC are busy discussing what the U.S. thinks, and what the U.S. will do, and whether or not Wisner ought to be more prudent in his statements, they forget to discuss whether anyone in Egypt is actually concerned with what the U.S. thinks. Hint: they're not. For once, I think Obama has very nearly done the right thing thus far by saying virtually nothing of substance on the subject. If we are truly to leave the future of Egypt in the hands of the Egyptians, while supporting a “transition that is both lasting and effective”, then it is about time media outlets began reporting more accurately on what exactly Egypt faces if Mubarak steps down before his term is up. In short, as stipulated by the Egyptian constitution, if Mubarak were to step down or leave office for any reason at the moment, his successors would necessarily be one of two people- Omar Suleiman, the recently appointed Vice President, or Fathi Surur, corrupt speaker of the People’s Assembly since 1990. The poor relationship that both of these men have with the protesters as well as their not-insignificant histories of corruption (especially Surur) make them less than satisfactory choices for interim leader. But more important, only the president himself, not an interim leader, has the ability to approve the changes to the constitution that are absolutely necessary if this September’s elections are to be anything more than another farce which leads to the establishment of a corrupt leader who is free to reign for thirty more years. So, the protesters can get their wish and have Mubarak step down, only to usher in another corrupt regime come September, or they can wait patiently and allow Mubarak to make the necessary changes and fulfill his promises. Why will he fulfill his promises? Because he’s an old man with a chance to retain a semblance of a positive legacy, and he has seen what his people are capable of when he disappoints them.
Check back soon for updates, and please ask questions or leave comments about issues you’d care to have addressed in later posts.
Lavish praise and thanks to M***, my stealthy and official photographer, I hope prison will be worth it! I expect it will be.





excellent. subtle commentary laying the groundwork for a swift return to cairo...eh?
ReplyDeleteA bias, I admit it.
ReplyDelete